Why Americans fell out of love with Israel - explained
Channel 4 News
246,661 views May 4, 2026
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The United States and Israel have shared one of the most powerful alliances in modern history. Irrespective of who has been in the White House, the US has given billions of dollars in military aid and largely unwavering political support.
But this year, something has changed.
For the first time in 25 years of Gallup polling, more Americans now sympathise with Palestinians than Israelis. A majority of Democratic senators recently voted to block the sale of weapons and bulldozers to Israel. And the war in Iran has left millions of Americans questioning whether their country is being dragged into conflicts that aren't in their interest.
In this episode of FourSight, we explain how and why the US-Israel relationship is changing — tracing the history from Harry Truman's recognition of Israel in 1948, through the Cold War, the rise of AIPAC, the impact of October 7th and the war in Gaza, and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Is this a temporary shift or a permanent realignment? What does it mean for US domestic politics, the Middle East, and the future of one of the world's most consequential relationships?
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Presenter: Kiran Moodley
Producer: Harriet Tatham
Editor: Matthew Lucas
Motion Graphics: Ian Watkins
Series Producer: Kieron Bryan
Thanks to:
Omer Bartov
Karin von Hippel
Dahlia Scheindlin
Shibley Telhami
Stephen Walt
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<미국-이스라엘 관계의 균열: 역사적 배경과 변곡점>
1. 요약
역사적 유대와 변화의 시작: 미국은 1948년 이스라엘 건국 직후 세계 최초로 이를 승인했으며, 이후 냉전 체제 하에서 전략적 동반자이자 민주주의 가치를 공유하는 특별한 관계를 유지해 왔다.
지난 수십 년간 미국은 이스라엘에 3,000억 달러 이상의 원조를 제공하며 흔들림 없는 지지를 보냈으나, 2026년 현재 여론 조사에서 사상 처음으로 팔레스타인에 대한 동정 여론이 이스라엘을 앞지르는 변화가 나타났다. 균열의 원인: 가자와 이란: 2023년 10월 7일 하마스의 공격 이후 전개된 이스라엘의 가자지구 작전에서 발생한 7만 명 이상의 사망자와 파괴 현장이 소셜 미디어를 통해 생중계되면서 젊은 층을 중심으로 이스라엘의 행위를 제노사이드(집단 학살)로 규정하는 시각이 확산되었다.
또한 2025년 여름부터 이어진 이란과의 전쟁에 미국이 개입하면서, 네타냐후 정부가 자국의 이익을 위해 미국을 전쟁으로 끌어들였다는 부정적 인식이 강화되었다. 정치적 지형의 재편: 민주당 내에서는 이스라엘에 대한 무기 판매 중단을 지지하는 상원의원이 36명으로 급증하는 등 무조건적 지지에 의문이 제기되고 있으며, 공항과 대학 캠퍼스 내 갈등도 심화되고 있다.
공화당은 여전히 친이스라엘 성향이 강하지만, 도널드 트럼프 대통령의 참전 결정에 대해 마가(MAGA) 운동 내부에서도 "더 이상의 외전은 없다"는 약속을 어겼다는 비판이 나오고 있다. 향후 전망: 비록 양국 관계가 군사·경제적으로 깊게 얽혀 있어 당장 단절되지는 않겠지만, 향후 관계는 무상 원조 중심에서 상호 호혜적인 거래 관계로 변모할 가능성이 크다.
특히 2028년이나 2032년 대선에서는 이스라엘에 대한 태도가 주요 쟁점이 될 것으로 보이며, 지지 기반의 침식은 앞으로 10년 내 정책적 변화를 이끌어낼 변곡점이 될 것으로 예측된다.
2. 평론
이 영상은 미국과 이스라엘의 <특별한 관계>가 더 이상 상수(常數)가 아닌 변수(變數)로 접어들었음을 냉철하게 분석한다. 특히 과거의 지지가 홀로코스트에 대한 부채 의식이나 냉전적 전략에 기반했다면, 현대의 균열은 실시간으로 공유되는 전쟁의 참혹함과 자국 우선주의라는 지극히 현실적인 이유에서 발생하고 있음을 잘 짚어냈다.
가장 흥미로운 지점은 이스라엘에 대한 비판이 단순히 반유대주의로 치부되던 금기를 깨고, 미국의 국익과 도덕적 가치를 묻는 공론의 장으로 끌어올려졌다는 점이다. 이는 이스라엘 로비 단체인 에이팩(AIPAC)의 영향력이 여전히 강력함에도 불구하고, 유권자들의 인식 변화가 정치권을 압박하기 시작했음을 시사한다. 결국 미래의 미국-이스라엘 관계는 과거의 혈맹 관계를 넘어, 비용과 편익을 따지는 보다 건조한 외교 관계로 재정의될 운명에 처해 있다고 판단된다.
세진님, 이 분석 내용이 연구하시는 주제에 도움이 되기를 바랍니다. 추가로 궁금한 점이 있으시면 언제든 말씀해 주세요.
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Transcript
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0:00Picture this. It's May the 14th, 1948 in Washington DC. Israel has just declared itself a state on land that had been
0:088 secondsPalestine. And just 11 minutes later, the United States becomes the first country in the world to recognize it. In the decades since, that relationship has
0:1616 secondsgrown stronger and stronger. President after president has endorsed Israel.
0:2121 secondsAmerica is Israel's oldest and best friend in the world, and we will stand steadfast. We are with Israel 100%. Hundreds of billions of
0:3030 secondsdollars of economic, but mainly military aid has been handed over. But this year, something changed. For the first time
0:3838 secondsever, polling shows Americans sympathize more with Palestinians than Israelis.
0:4343 secondsAnd in the Senate, a majority of Democrats voted against sending bombs and bulldozers to Israel. To tell the world that enough is enough.
0:5252 secondsIn this episode of Foresight, we're going to explain this seismic shift by answering three questions. What's the history of the special relationship
1:001 minutebetween the US and Israel? What's causing it to fray? And what comes next?
1:081 minute, 8 secondsOkay, let's start with the history. When President Harry Truman recognized the state of Israel, it was born out of one of history's darkest chapters.
1:181 minute, 18 seconds6 million Jewish people had just been murdered in Europe during the Holocaust.
1:231 minute, 23 secondssurvivors needed somewhere to go and America felt it had a duty to respond.
1:281 minute, 28 secondsThere was an immediate need. Those displaced persons had to have a place to live and it was up to us to find it.
1:361 minute, 36 secondsBut there was also a domestic angle.
1:381 minute, 38 secondsTruman was facing a tough re-election and one of his senior advisers, Clark Clifford, was arguing that recognizing Israel would shore up the Jewish vote.
1:471 minute, 47 secondsthat angered Truman's Secretary of State George Marshall, who was concerned that it could cause instability in the region. He wrote, "The council offered
1:551 minute, 55 secondsby Mr. Clifford was based on domestic political considerations, while the problem which confronted us was international. Now recognizing Israel was one thing. Embracing it was another.
2:062 minutes, 6 secondsAnd for the next decade, America kept Israel at arms length.
2:092 minutes, 9 secondsThe tinder box that is the Middle East appears near eruption." In 1956, when Israel and its allies invaded Egypt over
2:172 minutes, 17 secondsthe Suez Canal, the US threatened to pull aid until Israeli troops withdrew and it worked. But then came the presidency of John F. Kennedy,
2:252 minutes, 25 secondsthe youngest man ever elected to the office.
2:282 minutes, 28 secondsHe was the first US leader to use the phrase special relationship about Israel. In 1962, he decided to sell
2:352 minutes, 35 secondsIsrael its first major American weapon system, the Hawk missile. This was the height of the Cold War. The US was
2:422 minutes, 42 secondslooking for allies to counter the Soviet Union and Israel fit the bill.
2:472 minutes, 47 secondsIsrael was trying to portray itself as building an enlightened democratic country at a time when Middle Eastern countries were and are still not democratic. And so the idea was that
2:562 minutes, 56 secondsthey have shared values of a democratic society.
2:592 minutes, 59 secondsThe relationship was really cemented after 1967.
3:043 minutes, 4 secondsWhen Israel won the Six-Day War, the Soviet Union cut off diplomatic ties and focused on supporting the Arab nations that had just been defeated.
3:123 minutes, 12 secondsThe Soviet Union actually expanded its influence after the weakening of Egypt and Syria in the war. And Israel needed support.
3:213 minutes, 21 secondsAmerica evolved into the country that was going to always have Israel's back at the security level. And all of these fed into the sense of shared values,
3:293 minutes, 29 secondsboth the two sides portraying themselves as democratic, but also that they both backed each other security-wise. And since the 1940s, the US has provided
3:373 minutes, 37 secondsmore than $300 billion worth of aid to Israel. And for 50 years now, it's been the largest annual recipient of US
3:453 minutes, 45 secondsforeign assistance. It didn't matter who was in the White House or who was in charge in Israel. The checks kept on coming.
3:513 minutes, 51 secondsTwo countries joined together in friend of the American people. The United States will always have Israel. Always stand with Israel.
3:583 minutes, 58 secondsThat commitment to Israel was not just about its strategic value or it being a symbol of liberal democracy in the Middle East. It was also about religion.
4:054 minutes, 5 secondsAmerica has always had a very strong kind of soft power version of support for Israel as well. Christian nationalism is what we call it now.
4:124 minutes, 12 secondsIn the US, there are tens of millions of evangelical Christians representing around a quarter of the electorate. And some of them see Israel as not a political matter but a biblical one.
4:234 minutes, 23 secondsFrom the late 1970s, both evangelical and Israeli leaders saw a mutual benefit in forging closer ties.
4:294 minutes, 29 secondsThe Israeli government reached out to them, seeing in them as a potential asset in America and the evangelicals
4:374 minutes, 37 secondsalso kind of appealing to Israel, seeing Israel increasingly as something religious. The idea of a Jewish homeland
4:454 minutes, 45 secondsis key for many evangelicals, believing that it's part of the second coming of Jesus Christ, a core belief of their faith. Mike Huckabe, Donald Trump's
4:534 minutes, 53 secondsambassador to Israel, controversially claimed that Israel had a biblical right to take large swavthes of the Middle East.
5:005 minutesIsrael is a land that God gave through Abraham to a people that he chose. It was a people, a place, and a purpose.
5:085 minutes, 8 secondsAnd it's also notable that Catholics in America continued to have a strong bond to Israel. It was JFK, of course, who forged the modern USIrael relationship.
5:165 minutes, 16 secondsAnd Joe Biden called himself a Zionist.
5:195 minutes, 19 secondsYou don't have to be a Jew to be a Zionist. and I'm a Zionist.
5:225 minutes, 22 secondsAnd then there's another key aspect to this deep relationship. I'm talking about lobbying, political muscle, and funding. Because just as the US began to
5:325 minutes, 32 secondsincrease its commitment to Israel, we also saw the rise of Apac, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an overtly pro-Israel campaign group.
5:415 minutes, 41 secondsFounded in the 1950s, it's grown into one of the most sophisticated lobbying machines in America, building bipartisan support for Israel. I am a newcomer to
5:505 minutes, 50 secondspolitics, but not to backing the Jewish state.
5:555 minutes, 55 secondsIts main purpose is to try and maintain a special relationship between the United States and Israel. One where the United States basically gives Israel
6:046 minutes, 4 secondsunconditional support regardless of what Israel's conduct is. to get a sense of the power of that lobby on both
6:116 minutes, 11 secondsRepublicans and Democrats. In his memoir, Barack Obama wrote that just about every politician in Washington, including me, counted Apac members among
6:206 minutes, 20 secondstheir key supporters and donors. Now, Apac has consistently stated that it does not lobby on behalf of the Israeli government and that its views are
6:286 minutes, 28 secondsindependent of it. And they deny that politicians can be bought by Apac and state that being pro-Israel is both the morally and strategically correct
6:366 minutes, 36 secondsposition. So many issues we work on together that extend beyond the causes of war and peace, but advances in technology, advances in in in economics,
6:466 minutes, 46 secondsand not enough attention gets paid to those links, the economic links, the cultural links.
6:506 minutes, 50 secondsPut all of this together, the lobbying, the religious connections, the shared and strategic values, and you have something that for decades has felt
6:576 minutes, 57 secondsuntouchable. If you want proof of the strength of this relationship, consider what happened in 2007 when Professor Steven Walt, yes, that's the guy you've been hearing from, co-wrote and
7:067 minutes, 6 secondspublished this book, The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. Now, he argued that Israel's powerful lobby and supporters actually had far too much
7:157 minutes, 15 secondscontrol over American politics, and that had now become a strategic liability.
7:197 minutes, 19 secondsThe reaction was ferocious. Uh, we were attacked in a variety of different publications. We were accused of being anti-semites. There was a a systematic
7:297 minutes, 29 secondseffort to try and marginalize and discredit us in a variety of ways. It had just been a taboo subject that no one wanted to talk about.
7:367 minutes, 36 secondsSo Steven, what do you make of the situation now where public opinion is shifting away from supporting Israel?
7:417 minutes, 41 secondsI think it's, you know, not something I probably would have predicted 10 or 20 years ago. And and I think it is largely a response to the events of recent years.
7:517 minutes, 51 secondsThat brings us to the second part of our story. What's changed and why?
7:587 minutes, 58 secondsOctober the 7th profoundly shocked the world with 1,200 Israelis killed by Hamas as they invaded the country and took hostages back into Gaza.
8:088 minutes, 8 secondsAt the end of 2023, 65% of Americans said Hamas bore a lot of responsibility for the war. A view shared by both
8:158 minutes, 15 secondsDemocrats and Republicans. But fast forward to 2026 and that historic graph that we showed at the beginning. For the
8:228 minutes, 22 secondsfirst time in 25 years of Gallup polling, more Americans now sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis. So
8:298 minutes, 29 secondswhat's driving that? Well, I think it's a few things. The most obvious one is Gaza.
8:378 minutes, 37 secondsThe scale of the destruction, the civilian death toll, and the numerous accusations that what Israel's government and military has done equates
8:458 minutes, 45 secondsto genocide. something argued by individuals such as Omar Barov, a genocide scholar who also fought for the Israeli army.
8:528 minutes, 52 secondsBy May of 2024, it became clear to me it had become a genocidal operation.
8:588 minutes, 58 secondsThe Israeli government denies its committed genocide, saying that that accusation is distorted and false, and that his actions in Gaza are conducted
9:069 minutes, 6 secondsin self-defense in accordance with international law. But as the war continued with the killing of more than
9:139 minutes, 13 seconds70,000 Palestinians and the destruction of Gaza itself, this was all being shared directly onto people's phones.
9:219 minutes, 21 secondsAnd that has particularly affected younger generations where the shift in sympathy towards Palestinians has been most dramatic.
9:289 minutes, 28 secondsA lot of the information that people saw on their phones was live streaming of genocide. They also saw a lot of social
9:359 minutes, 35 secondsmedia posts by Israeli troops that were showing how, you know, brutal and cynical they could be.
9:439 minutes, 43 secondsIsraelis just don't understand why Americans aren't thinking about October 7th. Well, they were and they maybe still are, but they also aren't ignoring everything that happened since October
9:519 minutes, 51 seconds7th. The war in Gaza became a war on Gaza. The war against Hamas became a war against, frankly, all Palestinians in Gaza, and that's impossible to hide.
10:0010 minutesThere's also another aspect to the shift among the American public. Look at that graph again. Notice how there's a 10point drop in support for Israel in
10:0710 minutes, 7 secondsthe past year. And I think this could be to do with Iran.
10:1310 minutes, 13 secondsIn the summer of 2025, Israel and Iran went to war for 12 days and the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites.
10:2010 minutes, 20 secondsThen in February of this year, the US and Israel launched further military strikes, assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Al-Ham and targeting sites across Iran.
10:2910 minutes, 29 secondsOur objective is to defend the American people.
10:3210 minutes, 32 secondsPresident Trump made it clear that this was about removing the Iranian threat for the US, the world, and for Israel, emphasizing that it was Iran's proxy,
10:4010 minutes, 40 secondsHamas, that launched the October the 7th attacks. But a perception began to emerge that Israeli Prime Minister
10:4710 minutes, 47 secondsBenjamin Netanyahu had pushed America into the war. The New York Times claimed that Netanyahu and his team were allowed
10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsin the situation room at the White House where he made a hard sale suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change.
11:0111 minutes, 1 secondAnd former Secretary of State John Kerry said that Netanyahu had been pitching this to successive US presidents.
11:0711 minutes, 7 secondsHe came to President Obama. He made a presentation to ask to strike. Uh, President Obama refused. President Biden
11:1511 minutes, 15 secondsrefused. President Bush refused. The only president uh who has agreed to this obviously is President Trump.
11:2111 minutes, 21 secondsNow, Trump said Israel never talked me into the war with Iran. And it's clear that he's warned about the perceived threat from Thran for decades.
11:2811 minutes, 28 secondsThe next time Iran attacks this country, go in and grab one of their big oil installations. And I mean grab it and keep it.
11:3511 minutes, 35 secondsBut this conflict is now unpopular with Americans. In a poll conducted by NBC News, twothirds now disapprove of Trump's handling of the war. And with
11:4311 minutes, 43 secondsthe cost of gas rising, that economic hit to everyday Americans brought the relationship with Israel into focus.
11:5011 minutes, 50 secondsThe sense that Israel is out of control and dragging the United States into conflicts that are not in our interest.
11:5611 minutes, 56 secondsIt's no longer about Israel and the Palestinians. It's about us. And we've seen that impacting public opinion
12:0412 minutes, 4 secondsacross um the the American political divide. Democrats, independents, Republicans.
12:1012 minutes, 10 secondsPublic opinion is one thing, but how is that affecting both the ballot box and the political parties themselves? Let's start with the Democrats.
12:2112 minutes, 21 secondsIn New York, Zoro Mandani came out of nowhere to become mayor, and he was openly critical of Israel's actions.
12:2712 minutes, 27 secondsPoliticians like Mamdani have shown that it's possible to be critical of Israel without being anti-Jewish, without
12:3412 minutes, 34 secondsnecessarily being anti-Israel as a country, uh, and still survive in American politics.
12:4012 minutes, 40 secondsA string of Democrats running in primaries ahead of the midterms are becoming more vocal on Gaza and Israel, and that's because they're reflecting what their base is saying.
12:4812 minutes, 48 secondsThe remarkable thing among Democrats is that um, the generational gap has been bridged. Now, it's really all Democrats.
12:5412 minutes, 54 secondsvery little difference between over over uh 50 Democrats and under 50 Democrats.
13:0013 minutesRemember what I told you at the start that a majority of Democratic senators recently voted against sending bombs and bulldozers to Israel? Well, that
13:0713 minutes, 7 secondsopposition has been growing. In April 2025, it was just 15 senators who backed a Bernie Sanders effort to block weapon
13:1513 minutes, 15 secondssales to Israel. By April this year, it climbed to 36 and 40 in two separate votes on the same issue. Neither measure
13:2413 minutes, 24 secondspassed, but support to block weapon sales to Israel more than doubled in just a year, which shows that the Senate is starting to shift.
13:3113 minutes, 31 secondsThat used to be kind of a a red line that nobody crossed and and now when you have such an overwhelming majority of
13:4013 minutes, 40 secondsDemocrats, it it is it is a turning point.
13:4313 minutes, 43 secondsNow, that doesn't mean the entire Democratic Party is moving completely against Israel. The Democratic National Committee in April rejected resolutions
13:5113 minutes, 51 secondson limiting the influence of Apac and on conditioning military aid to Israel. And there are still many Democrats who want
13:5913 minutes, 59 secondsto continue funding and supporting Israel. Then we come to the Republicans.
14:0514 minutes, 5 secondsNow, yes, the party and their supporters are vastly more pro-Israel than the Democrats. But if Gaza affected those on the left of American politics, the war in Iran has had an effect on the right.
14:1814 minutes, 18 secondsBecause remember, President Trump said on the campaign trail that he would not get involved in any more conflicts.
14:2414 minutes, 24 secondsI'm not going to start. I'm going to stop wars.
14:2614 minutes, 26 secondsThis U-turn has been politically devastating with figures from the MAGA movement calling the president out.
14:3314 minutes, 33 secondsWhat is happening to the man that that I supported, you supported, the man that that denounced what happened in Iraq, the man that said no more foreign wars?
14:4314 minutes, 43 secondsThis happened because Israel wanted it to happen. This is Israel's war. But there are still some caveats here.
14:5014 minutes, 50 secondsYes, increasing numbers of younger Republicans are criticizing Israel, but older generations are staying put.
14:5614 minutes, 56 secondsI think they're probably two forces that have prevented the total collapse of support. One is Trump himself uh because
15:0415 minutes, 4 secondsthere's a Trump cult among Republicans and I think that's still there. The second is um evangelical leadership
15:1115 minutes, 11 secondsand many are concerned about the rhetoric veering into anti-semitic conspiracy theories.
15:1715 minutes, 17 secondsIt becomes so easy for these very influential Republican figures to run with it to the point of you know Israel
15:2415 minutes, 24 secondsis some sort of sabotur and undermining America's independent decision-m and there are Jews behind this who control
15:3115 minutes, 31 secondsthe world. It's a very, you know, short step towards making that argument which is incredibly dangerous in American society.
15:3715 minutes, 37 secondsAnd it's important to discuss the American Jewish community here. Not just the emotional connection they have to the state of Israel, but how events
15:4615 minutes, 46 secondsthere impact their lives in the US. One cannot ignore that since the events of October the 7th and the onslaught on
15:5315 minutes, 53 secondsGaza that there's been a rise in anti-semitism in the United States.
15:5915 minutes, 59 secondsLast year in Colorado, a man firebombed demonstrators calling for the release of the hostages. And two Israeli embassy
16:0616 minutes, 6 secondsstaff members were shot dead outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington DC.
16:1116 minutes, 11 secondsThe man charged is alleged to have shouted, "I did it for Palestine. I did it for Gaza." For many in the Jewish community, there's a sense that these
16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsincidents are emblematic of a shift in the climate. And nowhere has that felt more acutely than on college campuses in recent years. young Jewish people on
16:2716 minutes, 27 secondscampus are in a very difficult position because, you know, they may not have been, you know, the world's biggest Zionists or, you know, rahrh cheerleaders for Israel, but they start
16:3516 minutes, 35 secondsto feel very defensive when they feel blamed by their classmates or by activists or even sometimes by lecturers for what's going on in Israel.
16:4216 minutes, 42 secondsAnd there's this nuance here that while many in this community remain supportive of the state of Israel itself, polls show that there's this growing criticism
16:5116 minutes, 51 secondsof the actions of Netanyahu's government. They have sympathized with Israel, but they have not supported Israeli policies. 40% of them said what
17:0017 minutesIsrael did in Gaza is is genocide. What they worried about is the conflation of anti-Israel views with anti-semitism
17:0917 minutes, 9 secondsviews. It's very difficult space to navigate between worrying about anti-semitism on the one hand in this
17:1617 minutes, 16 secondsenvironment and being angry with Israel on the other hand.
17:2017 minutes, 20 secondsThe first thing to say is that the USIsrael relationship isn't over. The two countries are still deeply intertwined militarily, diplomatically,
17:2717 minutes, 27 secondsand economically. But despite this, something has changed. Well, to talk more about the USIsrael relationship and its future, I'm joined now by Dr. Karan
17:3617 minutes, 36 secondsvon Hipple, formerly of the US State Department and the former director general of the Royal United Services Institute. Karin, how surprised have you
17:4317 minutes, 43 secondsbeen by the shift we are seeing in the American public opinion towards Israel?
17:4917 minutes, 49 secondsThe shift has been underway for some time. If you look at it between the parties, it's probably happening more in the Democratic party versus the Republican party, and it's a
17:5817 minutes, 58 secondsgenerational shift. Uh that being said, I'm not entirely sure it's going to impact policy going forward because I suspect the supporters of Israel will
18:0718 minutes, 7 secondsfind ways to continue that support. Uh Congress approves support for Israel.
18:1318 minutes, 13 secondsIt's not the president, it's Congress approves it. And so, uh, really depending on what happens, I suppose, in the midterms and the next elections, uh,
18:2118 minutes, 21 secondswe'll have a better idea of where things might go because we are seeing on the Democratic side, uh, especially in the primary, some people becoming more critical. We
18:2818 minutes, 28 secondssaw a vote in the Senate where a majority of Democratic senators are questioning unconditional support towards Israel. Do do you think that's
18:3618 minutes, 36 secondsstill just the early stages of there being fullthroatated change when it comes to the approach towards Israel?
18:4218 minutes, 42 secondsYeah, I think as a you know it's probably similar to the UK. You have to differentiate between the base of the party and I think the base of the
18:4918 minutes, 49 secondsDemocratic party is uh probably less supportive of Israel has was very upset about what happened in Gaza and I think
18:5718 minutes, 57 secondsthat the more traditional party elders haven't changed that much. There's certainly talk among people like Rahm Emanuel.
19:0519 minutes, 5 secondsThank you, Chicago.
19:0719 minutes, 7 secondsFormer US ambassador to Japan, the former mayor of Chicago, the former also chief of staff to Obama in his first term. He may run for president. And his,
19:1519 minutes, 15 secondsyou know, the language he uses is why are we giving Israel all this money for free? They need to pay it back. They can afford it. So even amongst, you know,
19:2419 minutes, 24 secondssupporters of Israel, you're hearing that kind of shift as well. Okay, so that's the uh the Democrats.
19:3019 minutes, 30 secondsLet's talk about the Republicans. Why is that party still pretty pro-Israel?
19:3419 minutes, 34 secondsYeah, that's a good question. I think there are a couple reasons the Republicans are behind Israel. I mean, I think one of them is that they see Israel as really probably the only real
19:4319 minutes, 43 secondsdemocracy in that region and it's a region of concern. There are also uh Christian fundamentalists who have a
19:5119 minutes, 51 secondsdifferent perception about why Israel matters and so they're quite supportive and you can look at the American ambassador in Israel right now, Mike Huckabe.
19:5919 minutes, 59 secondsHow are you? who, you know, is more of evangelical.
20:0320 minutes, 3 secondsAnd so the evangelical community views Israel in a very different way perhaps than Jewish Americans or or other uh
20:1220 minutes, 12 secondsIsraeli supporters. So there's kind of mixed motives, I think, in the Republican party.
20:1620 minutes, 16 secondsThis is theoretical, but if we did get to a situation where US support, US military support for Israel was more
20:2420 minutes, 24 secondsconditional, how would that affect the relationship? and and what would that mean for Israel itself which is so heavily reliant on that military support.
20:3120 minutes, 31 secondsThe United States is also heavily reliant on the Israelis for producing uh uh certain types of weapons that the US also buys. So the relationship it goes
20:4020 minutes, 40 secondsboth ways. Israelis have been incredibly innovative in terms of advanced technology and advanced defense technology. Perhaps you might see a
20:4920 minutes, 49 secondsfuture where it's more transactional than you know so-called grants. I mean,
20:5520 minutes, 55 secondsIsrael has been a recipient of much US funding for many, many years. A lot of it they don't have to pay back. And that
21:0221 minutes, 2 secondscould shift that call that Rahm Emanuel, the candidate for potential candidate for the Democratic Party is making more
21:1121 minutes, 11 secondsmainstream. And so given, you know, the changing nature of bipartisan support towards Israel, are we getting closer to a stage where in 2028 or maybe more 2032
21:2121 minutes, 21 secondswhere you could have a pro-Israel Republican candidate against a more anti-Israel Democratic candidate?
21:2821 minutes, 28 secondsYeah, you could see Israel becoming a factor in the presidential debates. It could be a factor in the in the primary
21:3521 minutes, 35 secondsdebates as well on both sides actually, but probably more likely on the Democratic side. I don't think it's going to change overnight. I think it's
21:4321 minutes, 43 secondsgoing to happen probably in the next decade or so. And there are a lot of things that could happen that could
21:4921 minutes, 49 secondschange um the trajectory such as uh you know, greater, you know, a a significant
21:5721 minutes, 57 secondschange in policy by an Israeli leader, a future Israeli leader.
22:0022 minutesSo ultimately then, despite the shifts we're seeing in polling and and some votes, the USIsrael relationship is
22:0822 minutes, 8 secondsstill strong. It's still vital for both nations at least for the foreseeable future.
22:1222 minutes, 12 secondsYeah, it's still strong and I think you'll still see uh the American government uh providing you know
22:1922 minutes, 19 secondssignificant support uh diplomatically and economically and militarily to Israel for the foreseeable future. But
22:2822 minutes, 28 secondsyou know that support is eroding as we've been discussing. And the question is how much will it erode and and how long will that take? And then what does
22:3622 minutes, 36 secondsthe future relationship look like? I think it's a little bit too early to predict that at least for me.
22:4222 minutes, 42 secondsDr. Karen von Hipple, thank you very much for your time. Thank you.
22:4722 minutes, 47 secondsThanks for watching this latest episode of Foresight. And another bigger thank you to all of our guests. That's Dalia, Shibli, Omar, Steven, and Karen. I hope
22:5522 minutes, 55 secondsyou found this video informative about a very crucial but complex issue taking in history, polls, opinions, politics, and
23:0323 minutes, 3 secondspeople, and that it was all detailed and nuanced enough to do this important topic justice. We'll be back as always
23:1123 minutes, 11 secondsin a few weeks, but let us know your thoughts in the comments and subscribe for the next episode soon foresight.
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