A Must Read Book on the Israel Lobby John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism
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DESCRIPTION
Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick have just published a terrific new book called Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. It appears twenty years after Steve Walt and I published “The Israel Lobby” in The London Review of Books (March 2006), which we turned into a book a year later. Much has happened regarding Israel, the Israel lobby, and the US-Israeli relationship in the two decades since Steve and I first addressed those subjects. Clifton and Lustick do a great job explaining those fundamental changes. In this episode, I will discuss their new book and explain how it differs from what Steve and I wrote in our article and book on the lobby.
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BUY THE BOOKS
1. Israel's Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power
by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick
Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/4gMNJey
2. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy
by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt
Purchase Here: https://amzn.to/3SL2M0o
(As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.)
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:28 The book: Israel's Lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick
2:38 The core arguments
5:15 The conceptual framework: discourse vs. policy
7:29 Where the new book breaks from Mearsheimer & Walt
8:01 How the discourse changed: dual loyalty and "Israel Firsters"
12:42 The internet and the collapse of media gatekeeping
15:08 Israeli behavior after October 7th
17:45 Israel as a "crazy state"
22:11 Israeli identity: "a nation that dwells alone"
27:51 Why Americans turned on Israel
29:29 The lobby fights back: redefining antisemitism
32:54 Government crackdowns on campus protests
35:40 Plutocrats, Citizens United, and policy capture
39:11 The bottom line and the big question ahead
41:14 Closing thoughts
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엘리 클리프턴과 이안 러스틱의 저서 <이스라엘 로비: 외세의 손아귀에 놓인 미국>
(원제: <Israel's America Foreign Grip Lobby: Power a in of the>)
저서 내용 요약
<1. 집필 배경과 핵심 문제의식>
존 미어샤이머와 스티븐 월트가 2007년에 펴낸 <이스라엘 로비와 미국의 대외정책>(원제: )
이후 약 20년 만에 나온 후속적 성격의 저작이다 . 미어샤이머와 월트의 기존 논의가 주로 <로비가 미국의 대외정책에 미치는 전략적·도덕적 악영향>에 집중했다면
, 클리프턴과 러스틱의 신작은 이를 넘어 <이스라엘 자체에 미치는 악영향>, <미국 내 유대인 사회에 미치는 악영향>, 그리고 <미국의 자유민주주의 제도를 훼손하는 구조적 위협>까지 전방위적으로 비판 영역을 확장한다 . 로비 집단은 특정 종교 전체를 대변하는 <유대인 로비>가 아니라, 기독교 시오니스트 등을 폭넓게 포괄하는 정치적 <이스라엘 로비>라는 점을 분명히 규정한다
.
<2. 담론 통제의 붕괴와 정책 장악력의 유지 (디커플링 현상)>
과거(2006~2007년)에는 로비가 여론 담론과 실질 정책 양쪽 모두를 강력하게 통제했으나
, 현재는 <담론 통제력 상실 vs 실질 정책 장악력 유지>라는 심각한 괴리(불일치)가 발생했다 . 과거에는 금기시되던 <이중 충성(Dual loyalty)> 비판이나, 미국보다 이스라엘의 이익을 우선시한다는 뜻의 <이스라엘 우선주의자(Israel Firster)>라는 표현이 공개적으로 공론화되고 있다
. 브랜다이스 대학 설문조사에서 미국 대학생의 74%가 가자지구 내 이스라엘의 군사작전을 제노사이드(집단학살)로 규정할 만큼 대중적 여론은 악화되었다
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<3. 여론 담론이 붕괴한 원인>
인터넷 및 대안 미디어의 부상: 과거 주류 언론이 수행하던 게이트키핑 체제가 붕괴되고, 틱톡·유튜브·서브스택 등을 통해 현장의 참상이 실시간으로 검열 없이 전달되면서 로비의 여론 차단선이 무너졌다
. 2023년 10월 7일 이후의 파괴적 군사행동: 가자지구에서의 대규모 민간인 학살 및 서안지구 탄압 행태가 전 세계에 여과 없이 노출되었다
. <미치광이 국가(Crazy State)>로의 변모: 과거 이스라엘 학자 예헤즈켈 드로르(Yehezkel Dror)가 나치 독일이나 주변 아랍국가를 규정하기 위해 쓴 개념(무제한적이고 공격적인 목표를 위해 야만적인 수단까지 서슴지 않는 국가)이, 오늘날 대이스라엘주의와 인접국 파괴를 위해 전쟁과 암살을 서슴지 않는 이스라엘 자신에게 그대로 적용되는 역설이 나타났다
. 이스라엘의 정체성 변화: 서구 중심의 정상적인 국민국가를 지향하던 초기 조류 대신, <만민 중에 홀로 거하며 열방의 하나로 여김을 받지 아니하리라>는 고립주의적 선민의식과 <모든 이방인은 잠재적 나치>라는 피해의식적 세계관이 주류를 차지하면서 국제사회의 비판을 전혀 신경 쓰지 않게 되었다
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<4. 로비의 반격과 정책 통제 메커니즘>
담론 재장악 시도(실패): 국제홀로코스트기억연대(IHRA)의 광범위한 반유대주의 정의를 무기화하여 이스라엘 정부 정책에 대한 정당한 비판까지 반유대주의로 낙인찍고
, 2024년 봄 대학가 반전 시위를 연방정부 권력과 결탁해 강경 진압했다 . 그러나 인터넷의 개방성으로 인해 여론 반전에는 실패했다 . 금권정치를 통한 정책 통제(성공): 2010년 연방대법원의 시티즌스 유나이티드(Citizens United) 판결 이후 막대한 자금을 동원하는 금권계급(플루토크랫)이 선거를 좌우할 수 있게 되었다
. 미리엄 아델슨 등 거액 기부자들의 자금력이 의회와 행정부를 옥죄면서, 조 바이든이든 도널드 트럼프든 대선 주자들과 정치인들이 로비의 뜻을 거스를 수 없는 구조적 포획 상태가 굳어졌다 .
평론
<담론과 정책의 균열, 그리고 제국 민주주의의 위기>
클리프턴과 러스틱의 분석은 탈냉전기 현실주의 국제정치학의 거두인 미어샤이머의 초기 연구를 한 단계 더 정밀하고 비판적인 차원으로 진화시켰다
가장 돋보이는 분석적 성과는 <여론 담론의 완전한 붕괴>와 <외교 정책의 철저한 포획> 사이의 괴리를 포착한 점이다
또한 이스라엘의 심리적·이념적 기제를 '미치광이 국가(Crazy State)'와 '홀로 거하는 민족'이라는 내적 논리로 해부한 대목은 탁월하다
미어샤이머가 던진 최종적인 질문, 즉 "국민 여론의 전면적인 이탈 속에서 정책적 맹목성을 얼마나 오래 지속할 수 있는가?"는 향후 서구 민주주의의 향방을 가를 핵심 분수령이다
미어샤이머가 짚은 '대중 여론의 붕괴와 금권에 의한 정책 고착 사이의 괴리'에 대해 세진님께서는 어떻게 평가하시나요?
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존 미어샤이머: 이스라엘 로비에 관한 반드시 읽어야 할 책
A Must Read Book on the Israel Lobby —
John Mearsheimer
첨부 강연 전사문(17쪽) 기반 요약 및 비판적 평론
1. 강연의 배경과 핵심 문제
국제정치학자 존 미어샤이머는 이 강연에서 이언 러스틱(Ian Lustick)과 일라이 클리프턴(Eli Clifton)이 쓴 이스라엘 로비 관련 신간을 소개한다. 그는 스티븐 월트(Stephen Walt)와 함께 2006년 논문과 2007년 저서 <The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy>(이스라엘 로비와 미국의 외교정책)를 발표한 바 있다. 이번 강연은 그로부터 약 20년이 지난 미국 정치의 변화를 검토한다.
그가 제시하는 핵심적인 역설은 간단하다. 미국 사회에서는 이스라엘에 대한 비판이 훨씬 공개적으로 이루어지지만, 미국 정부의 지원정책은 이러한 여론 변화에 비례하여 바뀌지 않았다는 것이다. 미어샤이머는 그 간극을 설명할 열쇠로 조직화된 로비와 정치자금의 영향력을 제시한다.
따라서 강연은 단순한 도서추천이 아니라 미국의 외교정책 결정과 민주적 대표성에 관한 논쟁이다. 다음 내용은 강연자의 주장과 이에 대한 평가를 구분하여 정리한다.
2. 기존 연구와 새 책의 차이
미어샤이머와 월트는 이스라엘 로비를 유대인 전체가 아니라 이스라엘에 우호적인 정책을 추진하는 다양한 조직과 개인들의 연합으로 설명했다. 그 범위에는 비유대인과 기독교 시온주의자도 포함된다. 이 구별은 논의의 출발점이다.
기존 연구가 로비의 영향이 미국 국가이익에 어떤 결과를 낳는가를 중심으로 삼았다면, 이번에 소개되는 책은 시야를 확대한다. 강연에 따르면 저자들은 그러한 지원이 이스라엘의 장기적 이익과 미국 유대인 사회의 관계, 미국 민주주의에도 부정적 결과를 낳을 수 있다고 주장한다.
신간의 핵심적인 기여는 영향력의 존재 자체보다 그 영향력이 작동하는 방식과 비용이 변화했다는 점에 주목하는 데 있다.
3. 공적 담론에 대한 영향력은 왜 약해졌는가
미어샤이머는 자신이 2006~2007년에 로비 문제를 제기했을 당시 미국의 주요 정치·언론 공간에서 이스라엘을 비판하기가 매우 어려웠다고 회고한다. 비판자가 반유대주의자라는 비난을 받을 수 있다는 우려가 공개적 토론을 제약했다고 보는 것이다.
오늘날에는 인터넷 매체, 독립언론, 사회관계망을 통해 전쟁 관련 영상과 해석이 광범위하게 유통된다. 미어샤이머는 이 변화가 기존 대형 언론과 조직화된 로비의 의제설정 능력을 약화시켰다고 해석한다.
그러나 인터넷의 다원성이 정보의 정확성까지 보장하는 것은 아니다. 선전과 왜곡도 함께 확산될 수 있으므로, ‘담론 독점의 붕괴’와 ‘공론장의 개선’은 동일한 명제가 아니다.
4. 가자전쟁과 미국 여론의 변화
2023년 10월 7일 하마스의 공격과 이후 이스라엘의 가자 군사작전은 강연에서 결정적 전환점으로 제시된다. 미어샤이머는 가자지구의 대규모 민간인 피해와 참상을 강하게 규탄하고, 이를 집단학살로 규정한다. 이는 강연자의 판단이며, 그 법적 확정 여부와는 구별하여 읽어야 한다.
그는 대학생과 젊은 미국인의 태도 변화에 특히 주목한다. 강연에 등장하는 설문 수치는 조사대상·질문 표현·조사 시점에 따라 해석이 달라질 수 있기 때문에 미국인 전체를 대표하는 통계처럼 받아들여서는 안 된다.
중요한 논점은 대중이 전쟁의 현실을 지속적으로 접하게 되면서 정치적 정당성에 관한 판단을 새로 내리기 시작했다는 것이다.
5. 이스라엘의 국가정체성과 국제적 고립
강연에 따르면 새 책은 이스라엘의 국가정체성 변화도 다룬다. 국제사회에서 일반적인 국민국가로 인정받으려는 지향과, 유대인의 특별한 역사적 위협을 국가정책의 중심에 두는 지향 사이의 긴장이 부각된다.
미어샤이머는 외부의 비판을 모두 적대감으로 해석하는 태도가 장기적으로 국제적 고립을 심화시킬 수 있다고 본다. 국가안보를 오로지 무력과 강력한 후원국에 의존해 확보하려는 방식의 한계를 지적하는 것이다.
다만 이스라엘 사회 내부에도 다양한 정치적·종교적 견해와 정부 비판세력이 있다. 사회 전체를 하나의 동질적인 세계관으로 묘사하는 것은 분석적 손실을 낳는다.
6. ‘미친 국가’라는 논쟁적 표현
강연에서는 이스라엘의 과도한 정치적 목표와 극단적인 정책수단을 비판하는 과정에서 ‘미친 국가’(crazy state)라는 도발적 표현이 소개된다. 이 용어의 목적은 국가의 정책 선택을 문제 삼는 것이지만, 표현 자체가 강한 규범적 평가를 담고 있다.
이 표현은 정치지도자의 목표, 군사적 수단, 국내 반대세력의 존재를 세분해 설명하지 못할 위험이 있다. 따라서 도덕적 비판으로서의 힘과 사회과학적 분석개념으로서의 정확성은 구별할 필요가 있다.
보다 엄밀한 평가는 구체적 정책과 국제법적 쟁점, 민간인에 미친 결과, 동맹국의 억제 가능성을 개별적으로 검토해야 한다.
7. 반유대주의와 이스라엘 정책 비판
미어샤이머는 반유대주의라는 비난이 때로 이스라엘 정부에 대한 정당한 비판을 위축시키는 데 활용된다고 주장한다. 강연은 특히 국제홀로코스트추모연맹(IHRA)의 반유대주의 실무 정의를 둘러싼 정치적 논쟁을 거론한다.
다만 IHRA 정의는 통상적인 이스라엘 정책 비판이 그 자체로 모두 반유대주의라고 말하지 않는다. 실제 쟁점은 정의와 예시의 적용 범위 및 이를 둘러싼 제도적 조치에 있다.
유대인에 대한 편견·차별을 반대하는 일과 이스라엘 국가정책을 비판할 자유를 보호하는 일은 동시에 가능하고, 동시에 필요하다.
8. 대학 시위와 표현의 자유
강연은 미국 대학에서 가자전쟁과 팔레스타인 문제를 둘러싸고 벌어진 학생 시위와 대학 당국·정치권의 대응을 민주주의 문제로 해석한다. 미어샤이머는 이스라엘 지지 조직들의 압력이 표현의 자유와 학문의 자유를 제한할 수 있다고 우려한다.
이 우려는 검토할 가치가 있다. 국가정책에 대한 비판과 특정 집단에 대한 차별행위를 구분하지 못하면 대학의 자유로운 토론이 약화될 수 있기 때문이다.
그러나 개별 사건의 평가에서는 시위 내용, 시설 이용규칙, 실제 위협 또는 차별의 존재, 대학의 조치가 비례적이었는지 등을 구체적으로 조사해야 한다. 모든 대학의 대응을 한 가지 로비 요인으로 환원할 수는 없다.
9. 선거자금과 정책의 지속성
미어샤이머는 미국의 정치자금 구조를 여론과 정책의 괴리를 설명하는 중심 요인으로 제시한다. 그는 거액 후원자와 정치활동위원회가 후보자의 정치적 선택에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 제도적 환경을 강조하며 친이스라엘 성향 후원자들을 사례로 든다.
그러나 자금 제공과 실제 정책결정 사이의 인과관계를 입증하려면 후원 시점, 의원의 기존 입장, 법안 표결, 경쟁하는 이해집단, 외교안보상의 판단을 함께 조사해야 한다. 정책이 로비의 선호와 일치한다는 사실만으로 그 정책이 오직 로비 때문에 결정되었다고 단정할 수 없다.
미어샤이머의 주장에 가장 설득력이 있는 지점은 특정 민족·종교의 집단적 힘이라는 설명이 아니라, 부유한 후원자와 조직화된 이해집단이 대중의 여론보다 큰 정책적 접근권을 확보할 수 있다는 제도적 문제다.
10. 종합 평론: 민주주의의 대표성과 동맹의 역설
이 강연을 관통하는 질문은 ‘이스라엘에 비판적인 목소리가 커지는데도 왜 미국의 정책은 크게 달라지지 않는가’이다. 미어샤이머는 공론장에서의 영향력과 정책결정장에서의 영향력이 서로 다른 속도로 변화한다고 주장한다. 이 구별이 강연의 가장 중요한 분석적 성과다.
그 설명에는 한계도 있다. 미국의 대이스라엘 정책에는 군사전략, 역사적 동맹, 국내 복음주의 정치세력, 정당 경쟁과 중동에 대한 안보인식 등이 함께 작동한다. 로비의 힘을 제대로 평가하려면 다른 변수들과 비교하는 연구가 필요하다.
다른 한편 무조건적인 동맹 지원이 지원받는 국가의 장기적 안전을 오히려 해칠 수 있다는 신간의 문제제기는 중요하다. 외부의 비판과 조건부 지원이 사라지면 정부가 점령과 군사력에 의존하는 정책의 비용을 충분히 고려하지 않을 수 있다.
결국 이 강연의 의미는 어느 집단이 미국을 은밀히 지배한다는 식의 단순한 이야기에 있지 않다. 시민의 여론, 조직화된 정치자금, 대통령과 의회, 전략적 동맹이 실제로 어떤 관계를 맺는가를 묻는 데 있다. 답은 하나의 로비만으로 찾을 수 없지만, 로비의 영향력을 분석에서 제외해서도 안 된다.
이 강연의 최종적인 질문은 앞으로 미국 사회의 여론 변화가 언제, 어떤 경로로 정부의 외교정책에 반영될 것인가이다. 이는 팔레스타인과 이스라엘의 미래뿐 아니라 미국 민주주의의 대표성과 책임성을 판단하는 기준이기도 하다.
자료 및 범위: 사용자 제공 PDF <A Must Read Book on the
Israel Lobby John Mearsheimer>, 강연 전사문 17쪽. 본문은 강연의 논지와 이에 대한 비판적 논평을 재구성한 것으로, 소개된 신간 원문 전체에 대한 독립적인 서평은 아니다.
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Transcript
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Intro
0:00
When Steve and I wrote, the lobby was pretty much in charge of the discourse and pretty much in charge of policy.
0:06
But that has changed. The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose
0:13
path, and the Israelis are executing a genocide in Gaza. It's not China's fault that it wants to be powerful.
0:20
So if you get into trouble and you dial 911, there's nobody at the other end.
The book: Israel's Lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick
0:28
Hello this is John Mearsheimer, and in today's episode, I would like to talk about
0:34
the new book on the Israel lobby by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick.
0:41
It's called Israel's Lobby. America in the grip of a Foreign Power.
0:48
I think this is a truly important book, and I hope that all of the viewers
0:54
go out and buy a copy and read it very carefully. Of course, this is a subject that's dear to my heart
1:01
because along with Steve Walt, I wrote an article and a book on the subject of the Israel lobby back in 2006 2007.
1:10
Steve and I wrote the article, which appeared in the London Review of Books in 2006.
1:16
And then, of course, our book came out, The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy in 2007.
1:24
And what I'd like to do is tell you why I think that the new book by Eli
1:31
Clifton and Ian Lustick, is so important. And in the process, I want to do that by comparing it to the
1:39
book that Steve and I wrote. This book is not just an updated version of what Steve and I wrote.
1:46
This book has all sorts of new insights in it that people should consider very seriously.
1:55
And the way I'd like to proceed is, first of all, I just like to talk about what the basic arguments are in the two books.
2:03
Then I'd like to talk about the underlying conceptual framework
2:09
that has to underpin any discussion of the Israel lobby
2:15
and of course, underpins both the book Steve and I wrote in the book that Eli and Ian wrote.
2:20
And then I want to talk about the nitty gritty changes that have taken place since
2:27
2006, 2007 that, of course, heavily inform
2:33
this new book called Israel's Lobby.
The core arguments
2:38
Let me just start off with the core arguments. Both of us or both books argue
2:46
that there is an Israel lobby that is very powerful. Now, it's very important to emphasize that in both books, the authors
2:55
go to great lengths to make it clear that this is not a Jewish lobby by any means.
3:02
It's an Israel lobby. Not all Jews by any means belong to the Israel lobby.
3:10
And the Israel and the Israel lobby, of course, includes many non-Jews, Christian Zionists, for example.
3:18
So this is not the Jewish lobby, it's the Israel lobby. Now, the argument that Steve and I made the principal argument
3:28
was that the lobby is bad for American foreign policy.
3:34
It's bad for a strategic point of view. And from a moral point of view.
3:40
And in the absence of the lobby, the United States, we argued, would have
3:47
a very different foreign policy, especially in the Middle East.
3:53
We did not say much in our written work
4:00
about the importance of the lobby for Israel.
4:07
Nor did we say much about the importance of the lobby for the American Jewish community.
4:17
Nor did we say much, if anything, about the impact that the lobby has
4:24
on American liberal democracy or on American political institutions.
4:32
But it's important to understand that the book by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustig
4:41
not only argues that the lobby is bad for American foreign policy.
4:47
It is that it's bad for Israel. It argues that it's bad for American Jews, and very importantly,
4:56
it argues that it now is in a position where it's undermining, undermining liberal democracy.
5:04
So the charge in the new book is much broader
5:10
than the charge in the book that Steve and I wrote. Now, what about the underlying conceptual framework?
The conceptual framework: discourse vs. policy
5:20
Anytime you think about the lobby, you have to think about its influence on the discourse.
5:28
This is the discourse about Israel, the discourse about the US-Israeli relationship and the discourse about the lobby itself.
5:38
So the question is, how does the lobby influence that discourse?
5:45
Then there's the issue of actual policy. And the question is how does the lobby influence policy,
5:53
which is different from the question of how does the lobby influence discourse?
5:59
Now, our argument back in 2006, 2007 was that the lobby
6:08
did a very effective job at, in effect, controlling the discourse.
6:14
Or if you want to put it in slightly different words, policing the discourse on Israel.
6:20
And we described in great detail how The Lobby did that.
6:26
We tried to account for the success that the lobby had had up to that point in managing the discourse
6:35
in ways that were favorable from the lobby's perspective.
6:40
And with regard to policy, there was just no question that the lobby had a
6:48
hammerlock on US Middle East policy. This is not to say it got its way every time, but
6:54
it got its way almost every time. And oftentimes when it didn't get its way, it ended up
7:01
forcing the administration to change its policy
7:06
to accommodate Israel and the lobby. So the basic argument that Steve and I made
7:13
was that the lobby was very successful in terms of controlling the discourse, policing the discourse, and certainly in terms of influencing
7:22
policy in ways that the lobby wanted that policy to go.
Where the new book breaks from Mearsheimer & Walt
7:29
Now, the argument in the Clifton Lustig book is very different.
7:36
There is that the lobby has lost its ability to control the discourse,
7:44
but it has not lost its ability to control policy.
7:52
So you see the fundamental change between our book and their book, and it has to do with the discourse.
How the discourse changed: dual loyalty and "Israel Firsters"
8:01
Let me give you a sense of how I see the discourse having changed
8:08
since we wrote the book back in 2007. And the article, of course, before that, in 2006, when we wrote the book,
8:18
it was almost impossible to talk about dual loyalty.
8:24
And if you did talk about dual loyalty, you had to deal with it very carefully, very gingerly.
8:32
It was a remarkably hot topic.
8:38
If you look at the discourse today, people not only talk about individuals
8:45
having dual loyalty, they talk about Israel Firsters the term Israel Firster, in other words,
8:53
someone who privileges Israel's interests over America's interest is a term that's used all the time.
9:00
In fact, many prominent American Jews who are
9:06
pro-Israel are referred to as Israel firsters. This was not an argument anyone, including Steven and I would want to make.
9:15
In 2006 or 2007. But the discourse has changed to the point where you can make
9:23
that argument to take what's going on in Gaza. The lobby and Israel have gone to enormous lengths to say that
9:31
this is not a genocide. What the Israelis are doing
9:36
in Gaza against the Palestinians, a center for Jewish Studies
9:42
at Brandeis, just recently released a report that shows that 74% of college
9:50
students, 74% of college students, think that what Israel is doing in Gaza
9:57
against the Palestinians is a genocide. This is remarkable. And this is evidence that the lobby has lost
10:06
its ability to control the discourse. And of course, you see this with people like
10:12
Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens and so forth and so on. There's just no question that the discourse today
10:19
is fundamentally different than it was in 2006, 2007.
10:26
Now, with regard to policy, there's no question, as Ian or
10:35
Ian and Eli make clear, that that the lobby
10:40
still has a stranglehold on U.S. Middle East policy.
10:46
And the issue that they raise, of course, which is a fascinating issue, is
10:54
whether or not and I'll talk more about this at the end. You can sustain a situation where Israel loses
11:02
control the discourse and people in the public domain talk about Israel in ways that are at odds with policy toward Israel.
11:12
In other words, it's very hard to have a special relationship with Israel where you give Israel unconditional support when so many people
11:20
in the body populace have a negative view, a hostile view, in many cases of Israel.
11:27
So the story that Ian and Eli are telling
11:33
is that the discourse has changed fundamentally since when Steve and I wrote a book, but the policy has not.
11:41
Now let's talk about the specifics. Let's talk about
11:48
what has actually happened to change the discourse.
11:55
And then let's then switch gears and talk about how the lobby has reacted
12:03
to this deteriorating situation from their point of view, in terms of the discourse, how the lobby is reacting to that,
12:10
and how the lobby is working overtime today to make sure that it maintains
12:18
its profound influence on U.S. Middle East policy.
12:24
In other words, that the United States remains firmly committed to giving Israel unconditional support.
12:32
What is what is what is the lobby, Israel's lobby, doing today to ensure that happens?
12:39
So let's just start by talking about what has changed. And here we're focusing on the discourse.
The internet and the collapse of media gatekeeping
12:45
At the risk of sounding like engaged in self-promotion, I do think Steve and I, with our article and with our book,
12:54
played a key role in opening up the discourse on Israel.
13:00
Of course, there were all sorts of other people who wrote before us and after us who helped in that endeavor.
13:07
But I think there's no question that the discourse
13:12
was helped by our article and then by our book.
13:18
And I would marry this to the coming of the internet.
13:24
The internet has been a huge problem for Israel. And what's going on here is that in the past,
13:33
before the coming of the internet, almost everybody relied
13:38
on the mainstream media for their news about the Middle East, for their news
13:46
about Israel, for their news about the US Israeli relationship. And there's no question the lobby had a profound influence
13:54
on what was said in the mainstream media. But with the coming of the internet, you have the growth
14:03
of all sorts of platforms, the growth of an alternative media and alternative to the mainstream media,
14:13
where it's possible to say things that are critical of Israel,
14:18
to post videos of what Israel is doing in Gaza, which is guaranteed to make Israel look bad and
14:28
guaranteed to change the discourse on Israel.
14:33
The US Israel relationship and on the lobby itself. So one cannot underestimate
14:40
the importance of the internet, the importance of platforms like TikTok, of YouTube, of Substack
14:49
for allowing criticism of Israel and the US Israeli relationship and the lobby itself
14:57
to percolate out into the discourse, the mainstream discourse.
15:04
So the internet has really mattered. What's also really mattered, obviously, is Israeli behavior.
Israeli behavior after October 7th
15:13
And Clifton and Lustig are really good on this whole issue.
15:20
And in fact, they have a chapter on Israel as a crazy state
15:26
that everybody should read very carefully. But what's going on here?
15:34
First of all, as a result of October 7th, 2023, Israel set out
15:42
to expel the Palestinians from Gaza, and in the process, it ended up executing a genocide.
15:50
And this was a genocide that virtually everybody on the planet
15:55
watched on the internet. It was perfectly obvious what the Israelis were doing.
16:05
And furthermore, a discourse began to open up about Israeli policy towards the Palestinians over time.
16:15
This is a discourse that hardly anybody in the public knew about. But it became clear to all sorts of people that if you looked at his
16:24
looked at Israeli behavior towards the Palestinians over time, at least going back to 1948, when the state of Israel was created,
16:33
that the Israelis often treated the Palestinians in absolutely horrible ways.
16:41
And then, of course, you've got a genocide on top of that. So I think if you look at what the Israelis were doing.
16:49
Not just in Gaza, but beyond Gaza. If you look at what they're doing in the West Bank today,
16:55
it's hard not to be super critical of Israel.
17:01
And this, of course, is exactly what happened. You want to remember, I said that this Brandeis Center
17:07
did a survey that showed that 74% of college students think that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza.
17:14
There's a reason for this, and that is that I am sure most of those students have watched what's happening in Gaza
17:23
and read about what's happening in Gaza on TikTok or YouTube or Substack, and this is a huge problem for Israel.
17:32
So what I'm saying here is that it's really behavior coupled with the internet,
17:38
that has really changed how people think and talk about Israel.
Israel as a "crazy state"
17:45
Now, to take this a step further in this chapter on Israel as a crazy state,
17:54
Ian and Eli tell a very interesting story about this
18:00
whole concept of a crazy state, and they link it very carefully to Israel.
18:06
When I was young, when I was a graduate student, there was a book that most of my fellow
18:13
IR students read by an Israeli called Yehezkel Dror,
18:18
and it dealt with the subject of crazy states. I believe that was the title of the book. Crazy States, if my memory is correct, and Dror who was an Israeli.
18:29
Of course, his basic argument was that there are some states in the system
18:35
that have almost unlimited goals,
18:40
unlimited aggressive goals, and they're willing to employ
18:47
almost any means, no matter how barbaric, to achieve those unlimited goals.
18:55
And of course, the canonical case here was Nazi Germany.
19:01
And the argument was, and it was not a difficult argument to make, was that Nazi Germany
19:09
had extremely ambitious goals. They were horrible goals, they were aggressive goals,
19:19
and they were willing to employ the most horrendous or barbaric means to achieve those goals.
19:28
And as Lustig and Clifton pointed out, the purpose of Dror's book was
19:41
to make the argument that the Arab states surrounding Israel were crazy states, and therefore Israel was justified
19:50
to do almost anything it had to do to deal with these crazy states.
19:55
I mean, what else could Israel do if it was surrounded by crazy states, but behave in the most hard
20:03
headed and toughest possible way with these crazy states?
20:09
And the point that Dror oh, excuse me, the point that Lustick and Clifton
20:14
are making is that what's happened over time is it's not the Arab states that surround Israel that have turned out to be crazy states.
20:24
It's Israel itself that's turned out to be a crazy state.
20:29
And the argument they make is that if you look at Israeli goals in the Middle East, the emphasis on
20:39
creating a greater Israel, the emphasis on wrecking all of Israel's
20:45
powerful neighbors and so forth and so on. And then if you look at the means that Israel applies
20:54
to achieve these goals, starting wars, assassinating leaders and so forth and so on.
21:01
You see very clearly in their story that Israel has become a crazy state.
21:08
And this argument is laid out in considerable detail, and it is a very powerful argument.
21:15
And if you think about it, this behavior reflects how Israel acts these days.
21:22
And of course, getting back to what I was saying a minute ago, it's very clear to people who watch,
21:30
you know, TikTok, YouTube, who reads Substack posts and so forth
21:36
and so on, that Israel is behaving like a crazy state.
21:41
And of course, once people become aware of this, the discourse is going to change.
21:49
And that's really what's happening here. If you look at Israeli behavior and you marry that to the fact
21:56
that this behavior is apparent to so many people in the West, in the United States in particular, it's hardly surprising what's going on here.
22:06
It's hardly surprising why Israel is losing the American public.
Israeli identity: "a nation that dwells alone"
22:11
They also make another very important argument, which you hardly
22:17
see talked about in the American media, which is worth saying a few words about.
22:24
And this has to do with Israel's sense of itself.
22:29
It has to do with Israeli identity. And they point out that this is not only about Israeli identity, it's
22:37
also about the identity that a number of American Jews have as well.
22:43
And when I was younger and the first time I went to Israel, which I believe was in 1978,
22:53
I was of the belief that Israel was striving
22:59
to become what was referred to at the time as a normal country. Israel was going to become just another nation state.
23:09
It's going to be closely affiliated with the West. But it was a normal state. I remember when I went to Israel in 1978, and somebody told me that
23:19
when it became clear that there were a significant number of Israeli prostitutes, that many Israelis thought that was a good thing, because it showed
23:30
that Israel was a normal country and it was just another nation state.
23:39
The Jews were finally getting their own state, much the way the French had their own state, or the Japanese had their own state.
23:48
The Jews now had their own state. It was just another nation state on the planet.
23:55
And Ian and Eli point out that this is only one
24:01
strand in Jewish thinking or Israeli thinking. Let's talk about it in those terms.
24:08
There's only one strand in Israeli thinking these days. There's another strand and that strand, which has a rich history,
24:17
basically argues that Jews as a nation will dwell alone and will be not,
24:25
will not be reckoned among nations. Just think about that rhetoric
24:33
that Jews are not a normal nation, and they will not.
24:38
They will dwell alone there alone, and they will not be reckoned among nations.
24:44
This is not just the normal nation state. And furthermore, they point out that part of this worldview.
24:52
This is the opposite worldview from the one that Israel is a normal state. This is saying Israel is very special.
25:00
It will dwell alone is the whole notion that the world is against us.
25:06
They're out to get the Jews and they're out to get Israel. And furthermore, and this is rhetoric that they use
25:14
in the book, the belief is, according to this second worldview,
25:20
that Gentiles, all Gentiles, are potential Nazis.
25:26
And the point that I and Eli make is that if you look at survey data
25:34
regarding what is happening inside of Israel, it's very clear
25:39
that this second view that Israel will dwell alone and that the world is against
25:46
Israel, has taken hold in a serious way. And if anything, is likely to become
25:54
a more potent worldview in the years ahead. This reminds me that I often wonder
26:02
why the Israelis are not more concerned about the fact that they have alienated so many people around the world,
26:11
that they have done so much damage to Israel's reputation.
26:16
If you think about the argument that Ian and Eli are making, it's perfectly understandable
26:23
in terms of the growing strength of this second sense of Israeli identity, why Israelis don't care
26:32
very much about what others think about their behavior because they expect
26:38
other countries, other nation states, other peoples to be against them. That's just the way the world operates.
26:47
So the argument here is that what's going on is not only that
26:54
there has been a fundamental change in Israel's sense of its own identity.
27:03
And again, this bleeds over into how many American Jews think about themselves and think about Jews in the world,
27:11
because, again, they are making the argument that this line of argument has affected some American Jews as well as Israelis.
27:20
So you have this phenomenon taking place at the same time. Israel is behaving in barbaric ways in places like Gaza and the West Bank.
27:30
And this is all taking place in the age of the internet. And as a result of all these factors.
27:39
What has happened here is that Israel's
27:44
situation, in terms of the discourse has badly deteriorated.
Why Americans turned on Israel
27:51
The idea that most Americans have a favorable view of Israel and a favorable view of the U.S.
28:01
Israeli relationship, which is what existed when Steve and I wrote our article and then our book has drastically changed,
28:10
and most Americans now have a negative view of Israel.
28:16
And if anything, this is likely to change, certainly, given that Israel, according to Lustick
28:25
and Clifton, do not care very much about what the rest of the world thinks.
28:32
Number one and number two, they feel they're basically free to do as they want in places like Gaza.
28:40
Places like Syria, places like Lebanon, and of course, the West Bank as well.
28:46
So Israel has lost control and the lobby has lost
28:51
control of the discourse for all these reasons. And that situation is not likely to change.
28:58
Now, as I said to you before with regard to policy. The policy has not changed.
29:05
The United States remains firmly committed to supporting Israel unconditionally.
29:12
This is no question on that front. So we have the situation today,
29:19
which Eli and Ian and do a brilliant job of describing, where the policy and the discourse are out of sync.
The lobby fights back: redefining antisemitism
29:29
So the question then is what is the lobby doing
29:34
to number one, try and rectify the discourse or rectify the problem that it faces in terms of the discourse.
29:43
And then number two. What is it trying to do to make sure
29:48
that moving forward, there's no change in American policy
29:54
toward Israel, that the lobby and Israel working together,
30:00
continue to maintain a hammerlock on US policy.
30:05
Let's start by talking about the discourse. And with regard to the discourse,
30:13
really two things are happening here that they describe in considerable detail.
30:19
One has to do with the definition of anti-Semitism.
30:25
When Steve and I wrote the book back in 2007, it was a pretty widespread understanding
30:34
of what anti-Semitism was. And
30:40
what's happened over time is the definition of anti-Semitism has been broadened greatly.
30:47
And today, the lobby and many others, because of the power of the lobby
30:54
to spread this idea, have this very loose definition of what anti-Semitism is.
31:02
It's the IHRA definition you're saying to you. So what does IHRA mean?
31:09
It's the International Historical Remembrance Alliance, excuse me, the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance,
31:17
International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance, IHRA definition of anti-Semitism,
31:22
and that IHRA definition of anti-Semitism is very broad.
31:28
And what it effectively means is that criticism of Israel is seen as anti-Semitism.
31:35
So anybody who is criticizing Israel for its genocide in Gaza
31:40
or its barbaric behavior in places like the West Bank is said to be an anti-Semite, according to this definition.
31:49
So what the lobby has tried to do by deploying this IHRA
31:54
definition of anti-Semitism is make it virtually impossible to criticize Israel
32:00
without putting yourself in a position where you're labeled an anti-Semite.
32:05
When Steve Walt and I wrote our book, we had a chapter called The Great Silencer, and we talked in that chapter
32:15
about how the charge of anti-Semitism is used as the great silencer.
32:20
And of course, Eli and Ian are talking about exactly that. And they are dealing with this
32:29
IHRA definition, which is a very important part of the story, which was not part of the story when we wrote our book.
32:37
So that's the first tool that the lobby uses to combat
32:44
criticism of Israel. In effect, the aim here is to make criticism
32:49
of Israel anti-Semitic and therefore silence critics. The second thing that's happened is that the lobby has used the government
Government crackdowns on campus protests
32:59
to crack down on anyone who criticizes Israel, and the best example of that
33:08
were the protests that took place all across college and university campuses in the United States in the spring of 2024.
33:16
Remember, after October 7th, 2023, after the Hamas attack into Israel.
33:24
Israel went on the offensive and eventually ended up executing a genocide.
33:30
And unsurprisingly, by the spring of 2024, there were large scale,
33:36
if not massive, protests on campuses all across the United States.
33:41
The lobby went to work and put enormous pressure on the US government to shut down those protests.
33:50
And by the way, this was not the Trump administration. It was the Biden administration. And the Biden administration played ball with the lobby,
33:57
and those protests were shut down. And if you go to university or college campuses today,
34:07
you'll see remarkably little evidence of any criticism of Israel.
34:13
It's really quite amazing how good the lobby and the government working together as a tag team, have been at shutting down
34:22
criticism of Israel on college and university campuses.
34:28
And of course, this is linked in part to using that broad definition of anti-Semitism purveyed by the lobby,
34:36
because if people on college campuses set out to protest Israeli behavior and criticizes Israel or criticize the lobby
34:45
or criticize the US-Israel relationship, what happens very quickly
34:50
is that the government defines that as anti-Semitism and goes to work.
34:56
So this is how the lobby has been trying to police the discourse.
35:03
Or, to put it slightly differently, to sort of recapture control of the discourse.
35:12
The fact is, it's failed. There's just no question about that. The lobby has been unable to recapture
35:21
control of the discourse. And the main reason is the internet.
35:26
It's just almost impossible in the age of the internet to control the discourse
35:33
the way the lobby once did before the coming of the internet.
Plutocrats, Citizens United, and policy capture
35:40
Then there's the question of policy what's going on at the policy level. And there Clifton and
35:48
Lustic have a Very interesting story to tell. First of all, they talk about
35:55
the growth of plutocracy in the United States,
36:01
the fact that we have a large number of plutocrats, some of whom are Jewish, and those Jewish plutocrats are willing
36:11
to expand huge amounts of money to influence elections, both at the congressional level and at the presidential level.
36:22
And not only that, not only do we have this plutocrat class
36:28
that includes wealthy Jews who are deeply committed to Israel, but we also had a decision.
36:38
A Supreme Court decision was made in 2010. This is the Citizens United decision
36:45
that basically allowed individuals. In other words, these wealthy plutocrats to spend almost as much money
36:54
as they want on congressional and on presidential elections.
37:00
So you have this situation where someone like Miriam Adelson,
37:06
who is both an Israeli citizen and an American citizen and who clearly identifies more with Israel than the United States,
37:14
according to Donald Trump, gave him an enormous sum of money which helped him to get reelected in 2024.
37:24
And of course, Miriam Adelson was not the only Jewish plutocrat
37:30
who was supporting Donald Trump. But the more general point here is that in the United States of America,
37:39
we have a political system where to get elected. You need a lot of money, and to get reelected, you need a lot of money.
37:49
And if you have plutocrats who can spend unlimited sums of money
37:56
helping people get elected, who are pro-Israel in their view,
38:02
and can help defeat candidates or incumbents
38:08
who are viewed as anti-Israel, in their view, you're going to quickly reach a situation where
38:18
most people on Capitol Hill and almost all presidents are going to be afraid to cross the lobby
38:26
and will do pretty much what the lobby wants. And of course, you saw this with Joe Biden, and you see this with Donald Trump.
38:37
Neither Biden nor Trump dare to cross the lobby. And this has been true, of course, for a long time in American politics.
38:48
And the reason is today that you have all these plutocrats
38:57
who are deeply committed to Israel and can spend endless amounts of money
39:03
because of the 2010 Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court.
The bottom line and the big question ahead
39:11
So what's the bottom line here? The bottom line here is that since Steve and I wrote our book,
39:18
the discourse about Israel has changed drastically. The public discourse about Israel has changed drastically.
39:27
And as I said before, that's due in large part to the internet, coupled with Israeli behavior and how Israel thinks about itself.
39:36
Those various factors have led to this fundamental change in the discourse, but the policy has not changed.
39:45
The lobby is still able
39:50
to influence policy in ways that the United States maintains unconditional support for Israel.
39:59
So the big question moving forward, and this will be a question that 20 years
40:05
from now, the successors to Clifton and Lustick will write write about.
40:10
The question is how successful will the lobby be in the years or in the years ahead
40:20
at maintaining support for Israel? Unequivocal support for Israel at the policy level,
40:27
when in fact support for Israel has significantly deteriorated at the popular level.
40:39
This is really the big question moving forward. This was not a question that Steve and I faced when we wrote.
40:46
I want to emphasize that again. When Steve and I wrote, the lobby was pretty much in charge of the discourse and pretty much in charge of policy.
40:54
But that has changed. Lobby has lost its ability to control the discourse.
40:59
And again, what you want to think about moving forward is what effect
41:06
this will have on policy, on US policy toward Israel in the years ahead.
Closing thoughts
41:14
So on that note, I will conclude, and I just want to say again, I think that people who are interested in US
41:24
Middle East policy, who are interested in how the lobby influences that policy,
41:30
you should definitely go out and read this new book by Ian Lustig and Eli Clifton, because it's a superb book
41:40
and it says all sorts of interesting and important things about the lobby and about Israel,
41:51
and about the effect the lobby is having on US democracy.
41:56
This is not a small issue, and this is an issue that I have not dwelled on today, but which these authors
42:05
spend a lot of time talking about in their new book.
42:10
On that note, let me close and say thank you for watching this episode and I look forward to the next episode.
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