Subs deal will quicken decline in Chinese students: Rudd
Julie Hare
Julie HareEducation editor
Sep 17, 2021 – 5.01pm
Australian universities will face an accelerated decline in student enrolments from China as the AUKUS submarine deal cements geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Australia, says former prime minister Kevin Rudd.
To compensate for the loss of revenue from Chinese students, universities will have no option but to broaden their horizons and seek to establish enduring markets in other Indo-Pacific and Middle Eastern countries.
Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the submarine deal will further heighten tensions with China. Alex Ellinghausen
Mr Rudd said the combination of closed borders and geopolitical tensions was causing a decline in Chinese student enrolments, a trend that would continue following Thursday’s AUKUS announcement.
“I cannot see any immediate relaxation in terms of international pandemic travel at scale, nor can I see any significant relief in terms of geopolitical tensions between Australia and China,” Mr Rudd told a seminar held by the Centre for the Study of Higher Education at the University of Melbourne on Friday.
“And the recent developments in terms of the Australian announcement of its future submarine program, and the way in which that has been communicated to the world and to China particular, will simply reinforce that trend.”
Mr Rudd noted that Chinese student enrolments in Australian universities had fallen from 182,000 in 2019 to 154,000 this year. It was reported earlier this year that Beijing had been instructing education agents not to recommend Australia as a preferred destination, but to direct students to universities in competitor countries, such as Canada, the United States and Britain. While Chinese enrolments have been holding up at some universities, they have been in decline at others.
Australian universities will need to replace Chinese students with those from other countries.
“It strikes me that universities in this country need to radically pivot to markets such as South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the traditional market in India, notwithstanding the problems that have evidenced over time there,” Mr Rudd said.
“And also markets, frankly, in the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia and the [United Arab] Emirates.”
Mr Rudd said he had a simple strategic message to universities:
“The sector needs to adapt and adjust to the fact the trajectory of the Australia-China relationship renders this part of the sector, which makes up 30 per cent of all higher education students coming from abroad, exceptionally vulnerable for the future.”
Mr Rudd went on to say that international education was a “highly intelligent market” so universities would need to put a premium on the quality of education on offer to guarantee continuing interest.
The Australian National University campus this week. Universities are about to face a few years of financial pain.
“Word of mouth is acute and therefore the educational experience, the pedagogical experience, but also, frankly, the social experience on campuses is critical,” Mr Rudd said.
“It is becoming increasingly important that in terms of the quality of the experience of individual foreign students studying in Australia, that it is improved, that students are given the opportunity to engage and relate in an almost semi-structured way with Australian families so that their time in this country is genuinely a positive one.”
He said the visa system also needed to be reviewed to help students stay in Australia for work following graduation.
Julie Hare is the Education editor. She has more than 20 years’ experience as a writer, journalist and editor. Connect with Julie on Twitter. Email Julie at julie.hare@afr.com
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Revenue from foreign students crashes 28pc
Julie Hare
Julie HareEducation editor
Aug 15, 2021 – 3.34pm
Tens of thousands of international students have deferred plans to study in Australia or are opting for destinations with more open borders as revenue from the sector falls to just $26.7 billion for the year.
Revenue from international students has declined by 28 per cent in just one year and on current trends the sector will be valued at just $20 billion by the end of the
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